| 7/24/01 Daily Routing Analysis of EDS Atlantic Challenge | ||||
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| We apply our "Force 4" routing software to evaluate possible routes for the competitors in the EDS Atlantic Challenge. The software utilizes boat polars and a 10-day MRF wind forecast to predict boat speeds at various times and locations, and then searches for the fastest possible route. This is always shown in red, and alternative routes in other colors (corresponding times and distances are color-coded). The alternative courses do not represent "second best" or "third best" solutions, but are constrained initially to various sectors relative to the rhumbline (e.g., to far right). | ||||
| Below is the routing solution for Sill Plein Fruit, from its reported postion "4" at 1400 UTC on 7/22 to a point "8" approaching the entrance to Chesapeake Bay. Precise routing is critical here, with a difference of almost 18 hours between two courses (red and blue) each fairly close to the rhumbline. Winds shown are as predicted at the time of the position report. | ||||
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| Below the same solution is shown, with actual boat position "S5" and winds (as per 7/22 forecast) almost 51 hours later, at 1644 UTC on 7/24. According to the router, the boat could have reached the positions shown by the black dots on each colored route, all considerably to the south and ahead of actual position "S5." To get there the boat followed quite a different route (points "S1" though "S5"). [See solution from 7/23 position with revised wind forecast following.] | ||||
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| Routing solution starting at Sill Plein position "S3" at 1400 UTC on 7/23, using 7/23 forecast. Graphic below shows predicted boat positions (black dots) on alternative routes, compared to actual track of boat (points "S3" to "S5") to its location at 1644 UTC on 7/24. Compared to 7/22 forecast above, winds at that time are less in magnitude but similar in direction. The routing solutions are very comparable to each other, but quite different from Sill Pleins's northerly track. | ||||
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| Below is the routing solution for Gartmore, from its reported postion "6" at 1400 UTC on 7/22. It has relatively little to gain by route selection, and its best route puts it almost 15 hours behind Sill Plein Fruit. |
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| Below the same solution is shown 51 hours later, at 1644 UTC on 7/24, with reported position of Gartmore "G5" and predicted wind at that time (based on 7/22 forecast). Gartmore has made considerably less progress than predicted by the router (black dots on alternative courses). [See following solution from 7/23 position with revised wind forecast.] |
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| Routing solution starting at Gartmore position "G3" at 1400 UTC on 7/23, using 7/23 forecast. Graphic below shows predicted boat positions (black dots) on alternative routes, compared to actual track of boat (points "G3" to "G5") to its location at 1644 UTC on 7/24. Compared to 7/22 forecast above, winds at that time are stronger to the south, reflected in changes in the red route. The boat's track is pretty well in accord, but it is making less speed than predicted (part of this may be due to our use of approximate polar files, which overestimate upwind speed). |
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