| 7/26/01 Daily Routing Analysis of EDS Atlantic Challenge | ||||||||
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| We apply our "Force 4" routing software to evaluate possible routes for the competitors in the EDS Atlantic Challenge. The software utilizes boat polars and a 10-day MRF wind forecast to predict boat speeds at various times and locations, and then searches for the fastest possible route. This is always shown in red, and alternative routes in other colors (corresponding times and distances are color-coded). The alternative courses do not represent "second best" or "third best" solutions, but are constrained initially to various sectors relative to the rhumbline (e.g., to far right). | ||||||||
| Below is a RECALCULATED routing solution for Sill Plein Fruit, from its reported postion "11" at 1400 UTC on 7/23 to a point "8" approaching the entrance to Chesapeake Bay. Compared to our earlier calculation from the boat's position on 7/22, the favored route now takes it first west to the coast and then south. The favored "red" route is some 4 hour faster than the more southerly "green" route. | ||||||||
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| Below the same solution is shown, showing actual path of boat (points "S3" through "S9") and winds (as per 7/23 forecast) 3 days later, at 1700 UTC on 7/26. The track is close to the favored "red" route, but actual position lags behind the predicted location at the black dot (part of this may be due to our use of approximate polar files, which overestimate upwind speed). At this position Sill Plein is in light winds, under 10 knots, which may give Gartmore (below) a chance to make up some distance. A routing calculation from this point to outside the Chesapeake entrance puts Sill Plein at 79:12 to go. | ||||||||
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| Below is the RECALCULATED routing solution for Gartmore, from its reported postion "12" at 1400 UTC on 7/23. The routing solutions are comparable, except for the most southerly (green course), which is much slower. Gartmore's best route puts it about 31 hours behind Sill Plein Fruit. |
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| Below the same solution is shown three days later, at 1700 UTC on 7/26, compared to actual track of Gartmore (points "G3" to "G9") and predicted wind at that time (based on 7/23 forecast). Gartmore appears to be following the red "optimal" route, avoiding the considerable reduction in wind to its south, but has made quite a bit less progress than predicted by the router. At this point Gartmore has favorable winds on port tack at about 20 knots. A routing calculation from this point to outside the Chesapeake entrance puts Gartmore at 109:24 to go. |
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