VOLVO DAILY ROUTING AND POSITION ANALYSIS - LEG 7: 5/7/02 |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 5/6/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 5/5/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 5/4/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 5/3/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 5/1/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 4/30/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE DAILY ANALYSIS ON 4/29/02 - CLICK HERE |
SEE RECAP OF LEG TWO OF VOLVO OCEAN RACE - CLICK HERE |
SEE RECAP OF LEG ONE OF VOLVO OCEAN RACE - CLICK HERE |
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| "Force 4"
routing solution from the position "16" of Illbruck at 0400 UTC on 5/5 to the
approach to La Rochelle, using the 5-day shortrange forecast on 5/5. The fastest (optimal)
route is shown in red, with alternative routes for comparison. Times are color-coded to
the route and shown in the 'Best Course Comparisons' box (left-hand column). With this
forecast, the router found a clear preference to stay close to and below the rhumbline.
Reported positions of Illbruck (to "24" at 1000 on 5/7), however, closely follow
the "blue" route, predicted to be substantially slower. The black dots show the predicted position of the "boat" on each route at 1000 on 5/7, and are an indication of the accuracy of the forecast and how accurately the routing program predicts position, factoring in winds, current and boat performance. The right-hand column shows distance to destination point in nm from each black dot. Position "24" is just slightly ahead of the predicted position on the "blue" route. |
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| Similar "Force 4" routing solution from the position "16" of SEB at 0400 UTC on 5/5 to the approach to La Rochelle, comparing her track to last reported position "24" at 1000 on 5/7. SEB stayed closer to her optimal "red" route, despite a zig instead of a zag midway, going north to position "19" rather than dipping south. This had her already behind predicted position "21" (at 1000 yesterday, 5/6), but today at 1000 on 5/7 she is way behind (compare right-hand black dot on red route). This shortfall can only be due to an error in the wind forecast along her track during this period, confirmed by comparing to the 5/7 forecast below |
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| The contrast above between the relative accuracy of the Illbruck and SEB predictions arises out of the rapidly changing weather pattern, principally the extensive region of light air which lay between the fleet and the destination a couple of days ago. Below we show the fleet positions at 1000 on 5/7, as predicted by the 5/7 forecast. This shows the light air "hole" well to the south and behind the fleet. Contrast the prediction as of 5/5 for that same time (next graphic), which has the hole just north of and slightly behind the fleet, favoring SEB. |
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| Fleet positions and predicted wind at 1000 on 5/7, as predicted by the 5/5 5-day forecast (compare to 5/7 forecast above). It appears that Illbruck and the main fleet's meteorologists outperformed the public services in this instance. The precise position of a "hole" is very difficult to forecast, and an error can be critical. In any case, SEB's shot at a pass has evaporated and it now looks like another Illbruck win, with increasing winds forecast the next few days. |
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